A mere two months ago that the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, while the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, in only two games has the side registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
His opener came from a superb shot, curled right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
